Illustration by Kristína Bančáková Tomáš Čorej / October 25 2021 (8 min. read) What is the difference between liberal democracy and a populist-extremist government with a firm hand such as Orban’s? The second weekend of October showed us that the difference lies in just a few tenths of a percent. On 8 and 9 October, legislative elections took place in the Czech Republic, which marked the end of the Andrej Babiš era. The leader of ANO, a populist movement which has ruled the country for the previous eight years, is unable to form a majority. Not only that, Babiš surprisingly was not even able to win the election. The right-wing coalition Spolu, composed of three parties (ODS, KDU-ČSL and TOP09), received the most votes and will form a coalition together with the liberal coalition Piráti and STAN. The free media, disappointed with the corrupted governments of Babiš, interpreted this result as a success. Martin M. Šimečka, a columnist of Denník N, wrote that "Central Europe finally has hope". The Guardian wrote about the "end of the post-communist era." Optimism is logical as it seems that the Czech Republic will have a competent government after many years, which, instead of the interests of its prime minister, will look at the welfare of the whole country. But don't expect too many drastic reforms. The aim of this government will be to reverse the negative trend of heavy spending and radicalization which took place for the last eight years and get it back on track. Here are five observations from the Czech elections. 1. The Czechs had a bit of luck This year's Czech elections were special. Sure, the biggest media attention is always drawn to the biggest parties, but paradoxically, those were not so important for post-election developments. We focused much more on three small parties: Přísaha, ČSSD (social democrats) and KSČM (communists). According to the Czech electoral system, a party needs at least five percent of the overall vote to get into the Chamber of Deputies. According to opinion polls, all the parties mentioned were close to the needed minimum of votes. Before the election, two scenarios were likely. One of them was the creation of a democratic government of the Spolu and PirátiSTAN coalitions. Neither of these coalitions was one hundred percent enthusiastic about the idea. While Spolu is a predominantly conservative, right-wing coalition, Piráti and STAN are more liberal in social matters. However, both coalitions were aware that they had no choice but to cooperate, and their voters were aware of it. The second alternative was another government of Babiš's ANO; but in order to have someone to create it with, he needed one of the small parties in the Chamber of Deputies. In the past four years, Babiš ruled with the social democrats and with the silent support of the communists. Again, it was speculated that he could rule with one of these parties and with the extremists of the SPD or possibly with the protest party Přísaha that was formed by former policeman Robert Šlechta. However, neither of these parties got into the Chamber of Deputies. Přísaha had 4.68%, the Social democrats 4.65% and the communists only 3.60% (they did not get into the lower chamber of the parliament for the first time since 1945). The paradox lies in the fact that Babiš basically "robbed" his potential partners: he stole their voters and thus, is largely responsible for the failure of the social democrats and the communists. As a result, he has no one to rule with now. At the same time, however, we should not lose perspective. Had the ultra-nationalist government of Babiš with the support of the fascists of Přísaha received a few thousand more votes, they would have ruled the Czech Republic once again. The competition was closer than many are willing to admit. 2. It pays to lie Andrej Babiš had big problems a few months ago. At the height of the Corona crisis, he was rapidly losing support, and the PirátiStan coalition even led by ten percentage points in the polls. But then spring came, Covid began to fade slowly, and Babiš caught up and even beat the PirátiStan coalition again. However, he managed to do it in a disgraceful way. Babiš and his team began spreading a blatant lie that the PirátiStan coalition wanted to move migrants into the homes of the Czechs, that they wanted a Muslim Europe, and that they would nationalize people's flats. Even though there was no truth to these claims, they served their purpose of weakening the PirátiStan coalition. Babiš's cynical tactics put the PirátiStan under pressure, which caused them to make mistakes. The result is their great electoral disappointment: the coalition of PirátiStan only took about 15 percent, although its goal was to gain 25 percent. This does not mean that the PirátiStan have no part in their election fiasco: they were too defensive in the key phase of the campaign and their chairman Ivan Bartoš was not convincing in the debates. Nevertheless, Babiš's campaign might seem to be a turning point in the modern history of Czech politics. Babiš did not tell half-truths, but he openly lied in order to defame a direct opponent. And it paid off for him: he almost won the election despite plenty of corruption scandals and a horrible year of Covid. Deceiving obviously worked in his case. 3. The migrant card Andrej Babiš came up with a non-existing problem in the middle of the campaign: migration. There is no rational reason why migrants were dealt with before the elections. Nevertheless, Babiš made them one of his flagship topics and very effectively covered his business scandals or failures in managing a pandemic. However, the discourse on migration is striking in the Czech Republic - as well as in Slovakia. Under the influence of Babiš's attacks, even the PirátiStan were forced to refine their traditionally pro-migrant rhetoric and repeat the phrases about "preventing illegal migration". At the same time, the vocabulary of extremist parties remains to be very hostile. They propose the removal of mosques while describing the Roma population as "beneficiaries of the social system". Fortunately, the Czech extremists were unable to cooperate and form a single party. As a result, the votes of far-right voters were divided between three parties: SPD, Trikolóra and Voľný blok. Only the SPD got into the Chamber of Deputies with 10% of the vote, Trikolóra gained about two percent and the Voľný blok received just over one percent. A certain proportion of far-right voters is present in each society. In the Czech Republic (and in other parts of the world), though, in recent years, under the influence of extremists, we have also observed a worrying trend of radicalization of mainstream parties, which we should not overlook. 4. The Czech left has a serious problem The new Czech coalition is undoubtedly democratic and right-wing. Four of the five coalition parties - ODS, KDU-ČSL, TOP09 and STAN - can be defined as right-wing and center-right parties. The rest of the lower chamber of parliament consists of four MPs of the Pirates and members of the populist ANO and fascist SPD. The liberal left is essentially non-existent in the Chamber of Deputies. This is a problem for Czech politics. Social democracies are an important part of the political system of all democratic countries, and the Czech Republic needs a strong democratic left-party as well. Otherwise, populists will take advantage of this again. There is one more perspective: the current election can be seen as a victory for middle-aged voters, who predominantly voted for the Spolu coalition. But what about young voters? Many of them for whom climate change and human rights are the most important topics will feel underrepresented. 5. Decency won Perhaps the most important message from the Czech elections is that voters still value unity and decency. The basic precondition for the success of the Spolu coalition was the unconditional support of leader Petr Fiala. The political scientist Fiala, who was blamed for many years for being boring, too academic and lifeless for a mainstream voter, is now to become a prime minister. The Spolu campaign was not servile. The Czech Republic wrapped up posters that it wanted to get rid of Babiš and prevent the growth of Okamura from SPD, but at the same time did not use unfair methods and did not attack its opponents on a personal level. The definitive legacy of the Czech elections is thus ambivalent and points to the deep polarization of Czech society and politics. On the one hand, there are forces that do not hesitate to ruthlessly lie about their opponents and about migrants; on the other, there is still a strong democratic force present. This time the second force won. Nevertheless, the race was close. The key lesson: Cautious optimism The new Czech government will have a unique chance, but also responsibility towards its constituents. The victory of the democratic forces is excellent news for the European Union and our region: at least for now, the Czech Republic has avoided the Hungarian or Polish scenario and can be expected to be a fiscally-responsible pro-Western country. Anyway, I warn against exaggerated optimism. Extremely good economic times are by now gone. If the new Czech government wants to fulfill its promises, it will have to make difficult and often unpopular decisions. As a result, there may easily be internal divisions within the coalition, which will be politically used by the opposition. And as we have seen during this campaign, there is still an extraordinary demand in the Czech Republic for extremist forces. If they are to succeed in the future, it will be a disaster not only for Czechs, but for Slovaks as well.
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